The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Thursday, June 21, 2012

Real economic growth in NZ smashes economist forecasts (again!)

Earlier in the week I argued that the RBNZ was right to keep rates on hold, with a subtle jab to my good buddy Ricardian Ambivalence, who had forecast a cut in June and July (and very much subscribed to the Australian sub-trend school that has been comprehensively eviscerated based on the hard empirical evidence over the last 12 months). The real economic growth data released today vindicated the RBNZ's decision. Over the first quarter, real GDP printed a stonking 1.1%, more than double the consensus economist forecast of just 0.4%. I don't know much about the New Zealand economy, other than the fact that its economic data often display surprisingly (or not so surprisingly) high correlations with their Aussie counterparts. If I had any basis for arguing that the RBNZ was right to wait, it was this...


at 10:56 AM