The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."
Saturday, February 9, 2013
Wednesday, January 2, 2013
Tuesday, December 4, 2012
Monday, December 3, 2012
Saturday, December 1, 2012
Thursday, November 29, 2012
Tuesday, November 27, 2012
Investors expect a trade-off between risk and return, but in Australian banking this relationship is inverted – banks with the lowest risks provide the highest returns. Taxpayer subsidies probably explain why.
The second is on the shock appointment of the Canadian central banking boss as Bank of England governor. You can read it here. I also discuss possible replacements for Glenn Stevens at the RBA and John Laker at APRA:
The two most obvious and apolitical successors to Stevens and Laker are, respectively, the RBA’s Dr Phillip Lowe and Dr Guy Debelle. Both have PhDs from MIT and are experts in monetary policy and financial stability. Dr Lowe is currently deputy governor and widely considered a natural replacement to Stevens. Dr Debelle runs the RBA’s financial markets division and led the central bank’s efforts to keep banks solvent during the global credit crisis.
Saturday, November 24, 2012
Friday, November 23, 2012
IF the value of your total assets fell by 6 per cent would you be insolvent? If you are sensible, probably not. Big companies like Woolworths or BHP would have to endure a drop in their assets of at least 40 per cent before their assets were worth less than their liabilities.
Yet the four major banks would be. If National Australia Bank's total assets, for instance, fell in value by 6 per cent to $717 billion, its capital or shareholders' funds would be more than wiped out.
Thursday, November 22, 2012
RBA governor Glenn Stevens and Financial Services Minister Bill Shorten have both thrown “knuckle-balls” into the evolving policy debates on how to prevent banks and non-banks from collapsing. Stevens also revealed he’s taken a directional punt on the Aussie dollar.
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
The annualised growth rate of the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity three to nine months into the future, was 4.1% in September 2012, above its long term trend of 2.8%...This is the second consecutive month that growth in the Index has been above trend with August and September the only months since August last year that above trend growth rates have been recorded. Westpac is a little less optimistic than the Index at this stage with our expectation that growth in the second half of 2012 will be around 2.5%, slightly below trend.