The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Sunday, April 1, 2012

"Risk-on" as China manufacturing booms...

From TDS's outstanding Annette Beacher:

** Nervous eyes were on the lookout for the Chinese March PMI this weekend, where whisper numbers and the flash estimate hinted at a weak sub-50 print, dampening the AUD and risk assets more broadly.

** We can breathe a sigh of relief as the outcome was a very solid 53.1 (mkt 50.8, prior 51). This is the highest print in a year, reversing the deceleration seen throughout 2011.

** This is now three months of trend improvement, and is good news for the AUD and commodity currencies in general. Risk should be inclined to open strongly tomorrow on this news, as it is also a clean slate after last week’s month-end/quarter-end/Japanese New Year end.

** The details of this PMI were very solid, with net balances for orders, exports and imports vastly improving on the holiday-distorted Jan/Feb average. This March report is the cleanest reading in months as the Chinese New Year impact does not affect March data.