The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Thursday, March 8, 2012

Market pricing 1/3 chance of RBA cut in April, but circa 3/4 chance of cut in May

Here you can see current market pricing for the 30 day interbank futures contract for April and May: in short, the market thinks there is a ball-park one-third chance of a cut next month, but better than three-quarters chance of a cut come May. I am little surprised the odds of a cut are not higher next month. Much depends on what the banks do with lending rates and where the Aussie dollar is. May is favoured because the RBA will have the first quarter CPI data at that meeting, and any revisions to past prints.