The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Friday, March 9, 2012

Greek debt swap could be bullish trigger for share market

I said months ago that I had turned bullish on Aussie equities for the first time in years. The increasingly apparent success of the Greek debt swap is likely to be another bullish signal for risk markets. Could we see Aussie equities at 5,000 points by the end of the year? RBA rate cuts would certainly help house prices and equities. UBS reports:

* EU: According to a Greek cabinet minister quoted by FT, the take up for the PSI will be "around 80 per cent". Official announcement is expected tonight. Greece is then expected to trigger collective action clauses, which will impose the PSI to remaining Greek law bond holders and cut EUR100bn off Greece's EUR206bn privately-held debt.

* GE: German IP beat expectations, rising 1.6% (1.8% y/y) in Jan (mkt: 1.1%), up from -2.9% (0.9% y/y) in Dec.