The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Saturday, August 13, 2011

Aussie sharemarket risk...With survivorship bias

This is a good chart from my mates at RBS. It shows the biggest peak-to-trough falls in Aussie stock prices. Note the increasing regularity--consistent with my long-held thesis that equity volatility is rising over time. If only more super funds listened. I am guessing this data is plagued by survivorship biases, which makes the numbers look better than they should.