The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

The number of unemployed job seekers in Australia is *falling* (not rising): charts

Two other important new time-series in this RBA-unearthed data-set are the total number of "short-term" and "long-term" job seekers receiving unemployment benefits in Australia. These are derived from the raw numbers by the relevant government department (DEEWR). And, in line with the story told in the previous post about declining overall numbers of dole recipients (and thus sharper declines as a share of the labour force), we see in the first chart below that the absolute number of short-term job seekers has also been declining (not rising), albeit at a reduced pace following a little blip over the New Year (presumably care of some seasonality and the east coast floods). The story is not so clear with long-term job seekers, which has flat-lined, although this would have declined as a share of the labour force. The good news is that the number of long-term unemployed has categorically not been increasing, and, if anything, has started falling again since March (again, the percentage share of long-term job seekers would have fallen)...