The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Sunday, July 10, 2011

ANZ: Carbon Tax to Cut Australia's Real Economic Growth by 4%

ANZ tell us that over the next 40 years the introduction of the Carbon Tax will lop about 4% in total off real eocnomic growth, and boost prices by another 1% in the shorter-term (and the Treasury informs us that our real wages will be 5-10% lower):


The Carbon tax will be budget neutral over the medium term but will be a cost to the Budget (A$4.3bn) over the next four years. The upfront payments to consumers will mean the 2011/12 budget will be worse off by A$2.9bn (0.2% of GDP) as no revenue is raised this financial year. These changes to the federal budget are not significant and will have no implications for budget funding or markets.


Economic growth will be weaker by 0.1ppt a year over the next forty years. Australia's potential economic growth is expected to be 2.7% pa over this period. The carbon reforms imply that it will now be 2.6% pa."