The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Very insightful comments from UBS's Matt Johnson

Matty Johnson is one of the best in the business. His message: there is risk that the RBA is sitting on the sidelines until next year:

"This time may be different, but it’s an empirical fact that rolling calls seldom works (especially rate-hike calls) – this is because data trends, so soft data tends to be followed by soft data. Thus, if growth data wasn’t strong enough to motivate a hike in October, it probably won’t get there for a while. It therefore follows that unless the RBA is pushed by strong Q3 CPI, they may be on hold for some time.

Our proprietary coincident indicator suggests the economy is currently around trend, and the leading indicator suggests growth will fall below trend growth over the next few quarters. If the economy continues to track our tools the ‘growthcase’ for tighter policy is likely to weaken before it strengthens. On the basis of the most recent data, our leader does not forecast above trend growth until Q2’11."