The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Tuesday, September 4, 2012

Two ex RBA board members' interest rate probabilities for today (charts)

Here are the probabilities around different interest rate moves that two former RBA board members, Professors Warwick McKibbin and Bob Gregory, think should apply to the RBA's meeting today...The fact that the previously hawkish McKibbin has attached a 35% probability to a quarter percentage point cut (as widely covered by the AFR), and only thinks there should be a 50% chance of the RBA staying on hold, is likely one reason why bonds have rallied a little this morning...