The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Thursday, September 20, 2012

The two charts that might just give the RBA pause...

The first chart from Bloomberg is RP Data-Rismark's Australian house (dwelling) prices in the five biggest capital cities since December 31 2011 through to 19 September on a raw, daily basis. Note the trough in house prices occurred in May in the middle of the RBA's 75 basis points worth of interest rate cuts. Look what has happened since. Observe in particular the surprisingly strong spike in September, which obviously cannot be sustained. The Bloomberg code is "AUSD Index". The second chart is spot iron ore prices imported into China since the day--4 September--that the RBA last met. They've increased 26%...Combined with the stunning Westpac-ACCI industrial survey today, which implied strong growth in Q3, this is a very interesting batch of data. Read more about the charts here.



at 9:09 PM