The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Wednesday, August 1, 2012

Steve Keen: I was wrong...And wrong again

Interesting to see associate professor Steve Keen has tweeted out an admission that he was wrong (again) on Aussie house prices after predicting that the rate of house price declines would accelerate in 2012. According to the ABS, Australian house prices actually rose in the June quarter. The problem is that I am pretty sure Keen's explanation for this new error is also wrong: mortgage credit growth does not appear to be 'accelerating'. It has been growing rather steadily at around the pace of disposable household incomes (ie, circa 5-6% pa). Here is Keen's tweet today in response to a criticism levied by an individual, which is also enclosed for your edification:

"Individual: This makes a mockery of Steve Keen's 'accelerating rate of decline' prediction! @cjoye @profstevekeen"

"@ProfSteveKeen Yes it does, but it appears that's because mortgage debt has accelerated. So I guessed wrong. Post on this soon."