The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."
Tuesday, August 14, 2012
RBA assesses Aussie growth in first half of 2012 was "above trend"
Overall, and notwithstanding the possibility that some of the strength in the March quarter GDP may be revised away, the data currently suggest that growth in activity may have been above trend over the first half of the year, led by continued strength in resource investment and, as measured, a strong pick-up in household consumption volumes.
The Bank’s current assessment is that growth is likely to be at about trend pace in the second half of 2012, as the strong growth in domestic demand moderates (Table 6.1). Nonetheless, the firm pace in the first half of the year sees the forecast for GDP growth over 2012 rise to 3½ per cent (from 3 per cent in the May Statement). The economy is then expected to grow at around 3 per cent over 2013 and 2014, little changed from the May Statement.