The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."
Friday, August 17, 2012
Australia's problematic wages story makes rate cuts even less likely (chart)
Today’s Q2 wages data (+10bps to +1%q/q v. mkt +0.8%q/q) makes it very hard to see the RBA easing rates this year. Just Friday, the RBA told us (in the Q3 SOMP) that they expected wages to moderate further:
Private sector wage growth was little changed in the March quarter, to be around the average of the past decade in year-ended terms, but below the elevated rates seen over 2005-2008. Business surveys and liaison suggest that private sector wage pressures may have eased a little further in more recent months, consistent with the generally subdued demand for labour across many non-resource industries. Over the year to the March quarter, public sector wages grew at the slowest pace in around a decade.
Clearly, they didn’t…