The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Thursday, August 9, 2012

A big two days for economics

First, the unemployment rate today--ignore the actual jobs numbers. Anything around 5.2% is good. Anything equal to or greater than 5.4% is not so good. Second, the Statement on Monetary Policy tomorrow. It should be hawkish relative to market expectations, and conditional on okay labour market today, right? Not so fast, Freddy. The RBA is clearly keeping a close eye on the exchange rate. What is the benefit in providing artificial ammunition for the FX markets by being hawkish? Next to none. And you know that the man on the street does not give a rat's arse about the 100 page Statement on Monetary Policy. So while I expect some modest forecast upgrades, I also think the tone in the section containing the projections to be pretty tempered.