Ouch. Trying to short the Aussie dollar in 2012 has been a very painful trade. I thought I was super smart transferring some money to the US just before the latest bout of weakness. Is the Aussie's muscularity a proxy for future growth or central bank diversification? I recall some of my bearish friends telling me they were surprised it had not fallen further when it was in the high 90s a month or so ago. Other smart guys I know have called a big Aussie dollar bubble only to be frustrated by repeated false dawns. The good news about the Aussie is that it should help attenuate future inflationary pressures, for a period of time. We don't want to see a sub-90 cent currency (and start importing inflation rather than the deflation we've benefited from of late). A big drop in the Aussie will likely mean the world is crapping itself. A strong currency increases our purchasing power while helping lubricate structural adjustments that are taking place in any event. And if it rises too far, the RBA will cut rates.
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