The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Saturday, July 28, 2012

Three economists think the RBA will cut rates in August--21 disagree

Based on the latest Bloomberg survey released on Friday. Well, sort of. As I expected, in the last week alone CBA, Credit Suisse, HSBC, TD Securities, and UBS dropped their August rate cut calls in favour of a prediction of no change when the RBA next meets. By my counting, 15 major forecasters have discarded an August rate cut in the last month or so. You can probably add JP Morgan to that list, which appeared to let go of their base-case of an August cut this week (although they are still allegedly forecasting according to Bloomberg ). The three main 'hold-outs' appear to be AMP, RBC, and Stephen Koukoulas of Market Economics. As he has done in the past, Stephen is furiously lobbying for a cut, with his arguments lucidly outlined in this post over at the Market Economics blog. My own view is that a cut is quite unlikely, although much water still has to flow under the RBA's bridge between now and August 7.