The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."
Thursday, July 26, 2012
McCrann: Cut in August very unlikely, barring disaster
THE good inflation numbers will not, and never were going to, prompt the Reserve Bank to cut its official interest rate at its next meeting in two weeks. The only thing that could -- indeed, it probably would -- trigger a rate cut then, is a European financial meltdown. Even a continuation of the turmoil in equity and bond markets that we've seen in recent weeks, would not be enough. Equally, if we'd -- most improbably -- got bad inflation numbers, they would not have caused the RBA to contemplate a rate increase. In short, both hikes and cuts were off the agenda, absent a European meltdown. Most unusually, the 'all-important' CPI numbers this time were always going to be essentially irrelevant to the immediately subsequent RBA rate decision.