The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Thursday, July 12, 2012

Average and median economist forecast is for jobless rate to rise to 5.2%

The two most bearish forecasters for today's jobless print are Stephen Koukoulas and Saul Eslake at 5.3%. Koukie is also an outlier in projecting a double, 50 basis point rate cut from the RBA next month (based on the last Bloomberg survey). The unemployment rate is assessed by the ABS to currently sit at a low 5.1%. The average and median expectations are for a slight increase to 5.2%. Frankly, a lot of the leading indicator jobs data have been insipid, including job ads, job vacancies, and the DEEWR leading index. On the other hand, economic growth was tracking well above trend over the 12 months to March, and we have had a boat-load of rate cuts.  So it will be interesting to see what today's unemployment rate does...