The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Swanny: budget to forecast trend growth for next 2 years

Okay, so it's not exactly a difficult forecast to make. What will perhaps be more interesting is the Q1 GDP, the revisions to Q4 and Q3 GDP from last year, and this Thursday's unemployment rate (currently at a historically low 5.2%). With the Aussie dollar sliding, or at best moving sideways, you can also kiss good-bye to a lot of that all-important tradeables deflation. Anyway, here is my buddy Wayne Swan in the AFR today:

The budget tonight will forecast growth around trend over the next two years, with real gross domestic product growing by 3.25 per cent in 2012-13 and 3 per cent in 2013-14. The retail trade figures yesterday are also encouraging, showing the largest increase in quarterly retail volumes in nearly three years.