The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."
Monday, April 30, 2012
TD inflation gauge shows core and headline inflation rising
"In our central forecast we have the unemployment rate drifting up probably to around 5½ per cent some time over the course of the next year and then gradually coming down a little bit."
According to the RBA's empirical research, the unemployment rate is one of the central bank's best explanatory variables for future inflation. And what has happened to unemployment since the DG--rather unusually--revealed the RBA's 2012 forecast? It has not budged. So while many (eg, Alan Kohler) have argued that the RBA has materially undershot its economic growth forecasts, it has also materially undershot its unemployment projection, which is just as important.