Fascinating sequence of Tweets today from ALP-aligned economist, Stephen Koukoulas. A 50 basis point cut in May would certainly give a huge boost to the housing market. Although one does ponder on the pickle the RBA will be in if the six month moving-average for inflation prints at above 2.5% when the CPI is released (especially accounting for the two rate cuts we have already had, which have yet to have their full effect on the real economy--and won't for another year or so--combined with the reversal of the high exchange rate that so many claimed was depressing activity in trade-exposed sectors). Unemployment tomorrow will offer important additional colour; the market is looking for the UE rate to increase. Any stability or a decline would be a surprise. And here is "Koukie":
"[W]e should be careful not to blame govt for RBA error. Govt surplus plans have been given for 2 yeears [sic]...Will RBA cut by 50 or more in May? Needs to make up for earlier inaction, plus add some insurance for current anf [sic] future negative risks"
