The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Tuesday, April 3, 2012

Horror hypothetical: what happens if core inflation prints high?

And past data revises up? This may not be everyone's base case, but it is the interesting one. What happens if productivity is a problem and trend growth lower than we think? And what happens if inflation prints high with an UE rate sliding slowly up? With year-on-year core inflation in the top half of the band? The RBA's price stability-cum-dual (for PR purposes) mandate will get yet another test...

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