The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Net exports add 0.3%pts…largest ‘add’ in almost 3 years

For tomorrow's GDP data, UBS notes that we got better-than-expected net exports and government spending in the fourth quarter of 2011:

Net exports were better than expected in Q4, and will add 0.3%pts q/q to GDP growth (UBS: 0.0%pts, mkt: -0.1%pts) - the largest in almost 3 years - albeit after subtracting a sizeable 0.7%pts in Q3. However, the y/y drag remains large at 2.3%pts. Export volumes continue to recover solidly from the floods (+2.2%, 1% y/y), while import volumes slowed after surging (0.7%, but still 12% y/y).

Public demand rose more than expected in Q4, up by 0.9% q/q (UBS: +0.7%, mkt: nf), adding 0.2%pts q/q to GDP growth. This only partly offset a sharp drop in Q3 of 2.7% (-0.7%pts q/q) which was the near-weakest in a decade. Government consumption reversed last quarter's fall (+1.0% after -1.1%), while investment edged up after Q3’s sharp unwinding of GFC stimulus (0.5%, after -7.7%).