The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Aussie business conditions improve in January

From UBS:

* The NAB survey of business conditions edged up in January (+2.1, after +0.1)...to the equal highest level since Apr-11 [and] trending up from -3.0 in August...

* Similarly, business confidence ticked higher (+4.0, after +3.1)...the highest since May, and up solidly from August (-8.7, which was the lowest since the GFC)...

* The key employment component remains resilient, holding steady (+0.8, after +1.2). (By industry, employment improved solidly in mining, up 10 to +20.) It remains broadly consistent with much stronger jobs growth (~2%) than the currently flat pace (which is the weakest since 1993) - although the indicator now seems to better track changes in the unemployment rate...

For the RBA, today's data paints the picture of an economy improving...with business conditions approaching average - and recent improvements in the global outlook - we continue to see the RBA as close to a trough in the cash rate (UBSe -25bp in May, on hold thereafter).
at 12:18 PM