From UBS:
* The current activity index in the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey edged up to 7.3 from 6.8...These figures were slightly softer than suggested by the NY Fed measure (13.5 for current activity, 55.1 on an ISM-adjusted basis). However, both NY and Philadelphia surveys indicated rapid improvement in manufacturers’ expectations. The six month capex expectations measures have rebounded significantly from last year’s lows (see chart on following page), as have expectations for business conditions...The improvement in the outlook holds out some hope for faster hiring and capex.
* The CPI was unchanged m/m in Dec (cons 0.1%, UBSe 0.0%), with energy prices falling but core prices up 0.1%. Core prices were up 0.145% unrounded—on the high side of 0.1% expectations. In the 12 months through Dec, the CPI rose 3.0% and the core CPI 2.2%—at or above the Fed’s likely targets. The last five months of the year were slower, held back by anomalous disinflation in apparel, lodging away from home, recreation, and motor vehicles. That pattern has begun to reverse in recreation and apparel, while motor vehicles price deflation accelerated. Rents, meanwhile, continued to boost the core CPI as they have been.
* Jobless claims exaggerated by holidays but still trending down. Jobless claims fell 50k to 352k in the week of Jan 14 (cons 384k, UBSe 375k)...the trend has been downward, with the latest four-week average (379k) down 9k from a month earlier and 19k from two months earlier.
