The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Thursday, January 19, 2012

Dept of Employment's jobs "leading indicator" increases for 5th month straight (chart)...

While some will try and parse the ABS labour force survey for negative implications, Australia's Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations (DEEWR) has just released (as at the 18th of January) its monthly leading indicator of employment. And the news is very good. Quoting the release (see also the red line in the chart below):

"DEEWR’s Monthly Leading Indicator of Employment (Indicator) has risen for the fifth consecutive month in January 2012, but the rate of growth has slowed substantially. One more month’s increase in the Indicator is needed to confirm that a quickening in employment growth (to a rate above its long-term trend of 1.8 per cent per annum) is in prospect...

The Leading Indicator is designed to give advance warning of turning points in ‘cyclical employment’ (i.e. the deviation of the one-year trend in employment from the six-year trend). The average lead time of the Indicator over the series (i.e. the time between a peak or trough in the Indicator and the corresponding peak or trough in cyclical employment) is around nine months..."

at 11:58 AM