The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Monday, January 9, 2012

Chinese and US economic data stronger than expected--again

From UBS's local economics team:

* US payrolls and Chinese lending stronger than expected.

--US: Nonfarm payrolls rose a stronger than expected 200k in Dec (consensus: 155k), after 112k (was +100k).

--US: The unemployment rate fell to 8.5% (lowest since Feb-09), from 8.6%.

--US: Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% m/m, in line with consensus. The workweek increased to 34.4 (consensus & UBSe: 34.3) from 34.3, the equivalent of adding roughly 300k jobs. Hours worked expanded 3.0% annualized in the fourth quarter after 0.1% in Q3.

--CH: New bank lending in Dec reached 640bn RMB, higher than expected (UBSe 560bn, pre: 562bn). On-balance sheet lending in Q4 recovered notably, which helped to offset the shrinking of off-balance sheet lending.