The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Current financial market interest rate expectations

Threw them up into a chart. Based on SFE IBs. My guess is that the RBA will be reluctant to see cash go as low as it did during the GFC. You can now get sub-6% fixed-rate home loans, and 6.39% variable rate loans. We probably won't see a genuine recovery in house prices until Q1 next year, but if cash stays here or goes lower, it will happen.