The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

New analysis on number of dole (unemployment benefit) recipients in Oz: they're FALLING (chart)

It turns out that the ever-dependable Kieran Davies at RBS is one of the few economists who has been talking about the unemployment benefit recipient series that I referred to in the posts below last night, and which the RBA has sought to draw attention to. The chart below shows RBS's analysis, on a seasonally-adjusted basis, of the much more comprehensive unemployment benefits data through to August 2011, inclusive. And this is why the RBA is exceedingly sceptical of those claims that Australia's labour market is "weak". How can it possibly be when the number of people on the "dole" has been systematically declining, as have the number of short-term job seekers receiving benefits (refer also to my "job seeker" charts in the posts below). As I noted last night, as a percentage share of a growing labour force, these dynamics would look even sharper...