From ICAP's Adam Carr:
"As for today’s data and news flow. Aussie data kicks off with the balance of payments, home loans and the public spending numbers at 1130. The balance of payment and public spending numbers are important feeds into tomorrow’s GDP numbers. The way things sit at the moment, and this forecast will obviously be updated after today’s numbers, GDP is looking like it may come in over 1%. That’s because we saw very strong profit growth in the June quarter and a sizeable inventory rebuild. The fact that sales of goods and services were up over 1% in turn suggests, as does strong, broad based profit growth and investment, that this inventory rebuild is not unanticipated. Given the public debate about the retail sector, I was particularly interested to see retail profits surge 6.2% in the quarter after a 4% spike last quarter. Doesn’t look very much like they are struggling to me and indeed if there is one key take from the recent data run, it’s that the idea of a non-mining recession has been revealed as a falsehood."
