The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Carr: Non-mining recession a load of misleading bollocks

From ICAP's Adam Carr:

"As for today’s data and news flow. Aussie data kicks off with the balance of payments, home loans and the public spending numbers at 1130. The balance of payment and public spending numbers are important feeds into tomorrow’s GDP numbers. The way things sit at the moment, and this forecast will obviously be updated after today’s numbers, GDP is looking like it may come in over 1%. That’s because we saw very strong profit growth in the June quarter and a sizeable inventory rebuild. The fact that sales of goods and services were up over 1% in turn suggests, as does strong, broad based profit growth and investment, that this inventory rebuild is not unanticipated. Given the public debate about the retail sector, I was particularly interested to see retail profits surge 6.2% in the quarter after a 4% spike last quarter. Doesn’t look very much like they are struggling to me and indeed if there is one key take from the recent data run, it’s that the idea of a non-mining recession has been revealed as a falsehood."