The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Monday, July 18, 2011

New Zealand core inflation goes nuts

Running at a 4% annualised pace for the quarter, here is what JP Morgan says:

"The CPI numbers this morning added to a string of economic data that has surprised on the upside in recent weeks from New Zealand. Second quarter CPI printed at 1.0%q/q (J.P. Morgan: 0.9%; consensus: 0.8%), following the 0.8% result in 1Q, owing mainly to higher food and energy prices. The concern for RBNZ officials now will be that, following the elevated quarterly 2Q CPI result, headline inflation likely will be above the RBNZ 1%-3% target zone by year-end. While annual headline inflation (at 5.3% in 2Q) continues to be lifted by the impact of the hike to the consumption tax on October 1 last year, even when the impact of the GST hike drops out in 4Q11, on our forecast headline CPI will still tip 3%."