The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Monday, May 9, 2011

Blocko's take on the Budget: Much ado about nothing

My pal, Paul Bloxham, the Chief Economist at HSBC, has this thumb-nail take:

"'The budget is tight’ will be the message when Australia's annual federal budget is handed down tomorrow night. But this will be more rhetorical than substantial. True, floods and AUD strength have weakened near term revenues, but higher commodity prices have improved the revenue outlook. Nonetheless, the budget bottom line is widely expected – thanks to press leaks – to be largely unchanged from last November’s fiscal update, with a small surplus not reached until 2012/13. This won’t be tight enough to prevent rate hikes. We still expect RBA hikes of 100bps by mid-2012."