The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Monday, January 24, 2011

If the unemployment rate keeps falling, wage inflation will rise

More from ANZ on population, unemployment, the NAIRU and inflation:

"The slowing in population growth will see the labour force decelerate from an average rate of growth of 2.2% in 2010 to 1.6% in 2011. This translates to 107,000 fewer net additions to the labour force in 2011. In isolation, this will shave 0.8ppts off the national unemployment rate by the end of 2011, and a further 0.2ppts by the end of 2012. Skilled labour constraints will further restrict the building industry’s ability to manage demands from the mining investment boom, Queensland flood reconstruction activity and existing national housing and infrastructure shortages. An ageing population will also place increasing strains on government finances as health costs and aged dependency ratios rise sharply. Increased net overseas migration remains one of the few realistic short-term options to alleviate these tensions."