The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Saturday, September 4, 2010

What would happen if Chinese demand for Australian exports fell by 30%?

Kieren Davies of RBS has obliged and undertaken the analysis:

"The impacts are big on export earnings (down $17b), profits (down $15b), wages (down almost $3b), the Budget balance (down $5b) and investment (hard to pin down), although they are perhaps less alarming than what you might have expected.

The key drawback to this simple exercise is that it ignores important second-round effects on activity, confidence, asset prices and our other export markets, which are something we plan to look at in more detail."