The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Sunday, August 1, 2010

Steve Keen's big new call

I am naturally loathed to draw any further attention to the predictions of my old friend, Associate Professor Steve Keen, of the University of Western Sydney. As I have demonstrated many times before, his forecasting track record leaves a lot to be desired. Yet since he was once upon a time arguably the most media saturated economist in the southern hemisphere, I should, for the record, highlight yet another sensationalist call. In his latest blog post, Steve concludes with the following statement:

"I expect these two processes to lead to an accelerating rate of decline in [Australian] house prices now, as they did in the USA when “Flip That House” ceased being a winning trade."

Let's see what the data says. Somehow I very much doubt we will be subject to an "accelerating decline in house prices." Perhaps my other good mate, Rory Robertson, will challenge Steve again? In the meantime, here is a copy of my slide on Steve's forecasting record.