From Dave de Garis at NAB this morning:
It’s an absolute data and policy feast this week. On the policy front, no change in the RBA’s cash rate on Tuesday an odds-on likelihood with the market looking for policy direction. On that score, Fridays RBA Quarterly Statement forecast update will be also be important. The RBA’s 2¾% year ended underlying inflation forecast for Dec ’10 is now firmly on track, requiring “gettable” 0.6-0.7% q/q underlying CPI’s in Q3 and Q4. We’ll also be especially interested to see whether the RBA tweaks their forecast inflation track for 2011 and 2012 from 2¾ and 3% respectively. A change to their inflation forecast track is unlikely.
Data-wise, the week kicks off today with the AiG PMI June manufacturing index, the TD-MI CPI July gauge and June HIA home sales (held over from last week). Tomorrow sees June retail trade (& Q2 volumes) and building approvals as well as July RBA commodity prices.
Thursday then sees the June AiG services index, the June trade data and Q2 ABS House prices. The June trade balance completes the nominal trade balance for Q2 and therefore most of the Q2 current account balance and a hint of the net exports volume story for the quarter.
