The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Sunday, August 1, 2010

IMF upgrades Asian growth forecasts but canvasses greater downside risks too

Some may have already seen this as the IMF post is dated 9 July, but I thought it was worth a read:

"Against this background, we now expect GDP in Asia to grow by about 7¾ percent in 2010, about ½ a percentage point above what we envisaged in April, before easing to about 6¾ percent in 2011.

The pace and drivers of growth will continue to differ across the region. In China, based on the strong rebound in exports and resilient domestic demand, the economy is now forecast to grow by 10½ percent in 2010, before slowing to 9½ percent in 2011 as further measures are taken to limit credit growth and maintain financial stability. In India, growth is expected to rise to 8¾ percent in 2010/11 from about 7 percent in 2009/10, as robust corporate profits and easy financing conditions fuel investment. Both the NIEs and ASEAN economies are expected to grow on average by 6½ percent in 2010, as exports and private domestic demand have surged, before moderating to 4¾ and 5½ percent, respectively, in 2011. In Japan, growth is now expected to reach 2.4 percent in 2010—mainly thanks to stronger than expected exports in the first half of 2010—before easing to 1.8 percent in 2011 as the fiscal stimulus gradually tapers off. In Australia and New Zealand, growth is expected at about 3 percent in 2010 before accelerating to 3½ and 3¼ percent, respectively, in 2011, with still robust commodity prices boosting private domestic demand."