The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Wednesday, August 4, 2010

ABS House Prices: Exactly as I expected--a very big number (+3.1%)

This estimate beggars belief, and I have no doubt the central bank thinks so as well. We expected the ABS would print between +1 and +2% for the quarter, with the risk of a higher number. If you want to understand why these estimates are biased to the upside, see my article from yesterday, entitled, "Why the ABS house price index results will likely be artificially positive."