The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Thursday, July 29, 2010

Westpac on the inflation result

Westpac's summary:

"The RBA will use this data to keep rates on hold on August 3, and now most likely for the remainder of 2010. The extraordinarily low 0.5% underlying print leaves 2010H1 running at a 2.6% annualised pace, comfortably in line with their forecast for 2010 of 2.75%. But, with rates now on hold for the rest of 2010, consumer confidence, business confidence, housing and most likely the labour market will be boosted.

With rates currently only neutral, and unemployment set to fall below the NAIRU, that outlook makes it more likely the tightening cycle will resume in 2011. Our forecast for the official cash rate at end 2011 remains at 5.25%, but the tightening is now much more likely to occur in 2011 than being front-loaded in 2010 as we had previously expected."