The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Monday, June 7, 2010

We are all dead in the long-run (yes, even you)

Avid followers will recall that I recently compared the 1987 and 2007 stockmarket crashes with ominous conclusions. This site offers the following interesting comparison (in nominal and inflation-adjusted terms) of the performance of the Nikkei since 1989, which proxies for the Japanese stockmarket, the S&P500 since 2000, which has fallen by nearly 50% in real terms, and finally the Dow Jones Index following the 1929 crash that preceded the Great Depression (note I have not checked their numbers and assume that they are correct). Long story short: if you get your market-timing wrong, you could find that you will be underwater for 10-20 years on your equities investments. Now that's risk. Juxtapose against that risk global deleveraging and ageing developed country populations. Especially grim if you live in the Northern Hemisphere...And it just highlights how lucky we Antipodeans really are.