The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Friday, May 21, 2010

Six reasons why global risk-aversion has spiked...

From RBS's Alan Ruskin via FT Alphaville:

1. Investors are gun shy in the face of a sovereign risk story that will know no end – until we get a Greek restructuring, and probably for much longer;

2. There is sharply diminished confidence in international (EU and US) post crisis management, not least the potential for actions that reduce market liquidity.

3. That the May 6th equity collapse may have been driven by some technical problems but it revealed and fueled underlying investor skittishness;

4. A belief that most of the immediate good news on the real economy and earnings is in the marketplace, and the next test will be whether the US/Global recovery survives these more choppy risk climes and the drag from Europe, which we won’t know until the autumn;

5. China’s major indices have entered bear market terrain and there is no confidence that air can be let out of the property bubble/froth gently;

6. A nasty tightening in money market conditions that is being reinforced by SEC 2a-7 regulatory changes that will further constrain bank funding options.