The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Friday, May 28, 2010

RP Data-Rismark house price index results for April will be released on Monday...

The April numbers should be very interesting. While Rismark has been forecasting a slowdown in the one per cent per month capital growth rates experienced over the last 12 months, we have yet to see any evidence of it in the actual price data. However, leading indicator data, such as housing finance approvals and auction clearance rates, have exhibited a discernible weakening, which should eventually place considerable downward pressure on price growth. Household disposable income growth in 2010 is projected by economists to be a very modest circa 3 per cent in the calendar year. This also lends weight to the subdued capital gains story over the next nine months. In fact, I would not be surprised to see the market step sideways for a while as it consolidates the strong value growth registered since Australian house prices bottomed at the end of 2008.