The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Thursday, May 20, 2010

RP Data confirms softening conditions

RP Data’s clearance rate data for last weekend lends more weight to the notion of a secular softening in market conditions. RP Data has Australia’s biggest auction database and releases its results on the Thursday following the weekend in question. As you can see from the diagram below, Sydney clearance rates have declined to more normal mid-60% levels, while the Melbourne market has also tapered. Combined with far weaker housing finance data, this presages a slowdown in capital growth rates. It is generally much more difficult to draw precise inferences from the other capital cities where the auction sales mechanism tends to be less popular vis-à-vis private treaty sales.