The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Monday, October 1, 2012

Terry McCrann: A rate cut "almost certain" tomorrow

Boy, Terry McCrann says a rate cut tomorrow is "almost certain". Alan Mitchell simply say they will cut. Bassanese thinks it is likely. And David Uren bizarrely says it is "widely expected" even though 19 of 28 economists surveyed by Bloomberg on Friday said they would not. Now, I wrote that an October rate cut was "live" back on 7 September (see here). But since that the time the GDP, unemployment, and certainly housing data has been better than the RBA expected. Iron ore prices have recovered 20%. The Aussie dollar is now no higher than it was at the last meeting. So while I absolutely believe a cut tomorrow is more likely than not, I do not believe they need to do so. The RBA has time on its side.