The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Goldman Sachs: RBA will hold in November

From Goldman:

Monetary Policy Implications: We do not see cause for a November rate cut Following this report, interbank futures now show a 60% chance of a November rate cut from 85% at yesterday's close. From our perspective, though both pricing and the consensus of local economists continue to suggest a rate cut at that meeting, our objective reading of the economic environment is still that rates should remain on hold. We note: (1) The RBA's statement from the October meeting that it is appropriate for the stance to be "a little more accommodative" suggests a November rate cut was not pre-ordained at that time; (2) developments since the October decision (global and local economic data, market sentiment, house price developments, mining project announcements, the government’s mid-year budget) have incrementally pointed to less rather than more easing.