The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Thursday, June 7, 2012

Every economist forecasting jump in jobless rate: av. from 4.9% to 5.1%

Every forecasting economist in Australia covered by Bloomberg expects the jobless rate to rise in June--it is just a question of how much, according to these analysts. The median forecast is from 4.9% to 5.1%. However, at least six economists expect it to jump a significant 30 basis points to 5.2%.

If the jobless rate does bounce to around 5.2% it will have been completely unchanged for a full two years--it was at 5.2% in May 2012. Since the monthly data is a little volatile, most analysts like to look at a trend version, or the three month moving average. We will get the latest report from the ABS at 11.30am this morning...