The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Monday, May 14, 2012

What happened to Aussie after RBA meeting but b/f 230pm release (chart)?

You can see the fairly monotonic move downwards in the AUD/USD that starts almost precisely at 12.30pm on 1 May from around 1.0422 to around 1.039ish. I am not saying this was insider driven. But given the Board meeting officially closes at 12.30pm, and the RBA announced a 'surprise' 50 basis point cut at 2.30pm, it is interesting. To be clear, the null that this is noise would probably be hard to refute...Although I don't recall any other data coming out at this time, so it was odd and noted in the markets. One argument is that it was just traders positioning for a surprise cut. But then that begs the question: why does all the price action seem to start at 12.30pm?