The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Goldman Sachs nails real GDP forecast at 0.4% (chart)

A great forecast from Goldman Sachs and others, such as Koukie, who have been arguing that growth is sub-trend. The low Q4 number of 0.4% combined with the downward revision to Q3 will have been a negative surprise for the RBA. We really need to see unemployment tomorrow to work out whether this is a true 'game-changer' for interest rates. But the probability of a cut this year has now risen, to be sure. The RBA will, however, need more confirmatory evidence...