The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Thursday, February 2, 2012

Global economic data surprises on upside again

From UBS:

* US: The manufacturing ISM index rose 1pt to 54.1 in Jan (cons & UBS 54.5), a 7-month high. New orders jumped, employment was little changed, while production eased. Exports order rose to 55.0, an 8-month high. Prices paid rose to 55.5 from 47.5, above consensus 50.0.

* US: Construction spending jumped more than expected in Dec, up 1.5% (cons: 0.5%, UBSe: 0.3%) after a downward-revised 0.4% gain in Nov (was 1.2%).

* US: ADP private payrolls expanded by 170k (consensus: 182k) in Jan. Small firm hiring is accelerating. We leave our non-farm payrolls forecast unchanged at 130k (Fri).

* CH: China's PMI came in 50.5 in Jan (from 50.3 in Dec), above mkt 49.6. After seasonal adjustment, PMI picked up to 51.2, led by rises in new orders, exports and production, suggesting manufacturing has rebounded, and exports were not as weak as expected.

* UK: PMI rose to 52.1 in Jan, well above consensus of 50.0, from 49.6 in Dec.

* EU: CPI rose 2.7% y/y in Jan (advanced est.), unchanged from Dec and in line with consensus. Jan PMI was revised up to 48.8 from 48.7 prelim (46.9 in Dec).